Avoiding Stupidity: The Less Obvious Route to Success
The strategy of silent winners
🏷️ Categories: Mental models, Life lessons.
Everyone wants to win.
Few truly understand how winning really works.
We were taught that success is about being brilliant. About standing out. About impressing others. But many of those who go the farthest… simply avoid the mistakes that bring others down. If you’re already exhausted from chasing perfection, you’ll see that the secret isn’t about running faster, but about stumbling less.
By the end of this text, you’ll understand why this mindset leads to success.
As investor Charlie Munger once said...
“It’s remarkable how much long-term advantage people like us have gotten by trying to be consistently not stupid, instead of trying to be very intelligent.”
1. Understanding the Game: Winners vs. Losers
Let me tell you a story.
I often play ping-pong with my friends. I love the sport, and we take it quite seriously even though we’re not professionals. I’m not the best among my friends. In fact, I rarely score points through skill. And yet, I usually end up winning most matches.
How is that possible?
By returning the ball.
Yes, just hitting it back again and again. No spectacular shots. No aiming for the perfect point. Just returning it no matter what. Eventually, they try a risky move, go for a strong smash—and miss.
I don’t need to make great plays to win. I just need to avoid silly mistakes.
What I do in ping-pong has a name. It’s called playing a “Loser’s Game.” Simon Ramo explained it in his book Extraordinary Tennis for the Ordinary Player. In it, he distinguishes between two types of games:
Winner’s Game: Like professional tennis. Points are won through the brilliance of the player—placement, power, precision. The result depends on you, because nobody’s going to make a dumb mistake.
Loser’s Game: Like amateur tennis (and my ping-pong case). Points are lost due to unforced errors—double faults, shots into the net, balls out of bounds. The winner is the one who makes the fewest mistakes.
In professional tennis, 80% of points are won.
In amateur tennis, 80% are lost.
Most of the time, we’re playing loser’s games.
But we pretend we’re at Wimbledon.
And that’s the trap.
2. The Amateur’s Trap
Let me paint the usual picture...
An amateur, convinced they need to be brilliant, tries to make winning shots. But they don’t have the skill. The result? Tons of errors. Ironically, they believe playing like a pro is the best way to win. Not understanding which game they’re actually in dooms them to lose.
This is what I saw in my ping-pong matches.
While my opponents went for spectacular shots or tried to slam the ball at the edge of the table, I just kept returning every ball. One more return, then another... and they fell, one by one. It might be boring—but it’s brutally effective.
The amateur who plays like a pro loses.
The amateur who accepts being an amateur—wins.
Here’s the principle:
If you don’t have total mastery, play to not lose.
If you do have total mastery, then—and only then—go all in.
3. Investing Like an Amateur
This principle applies to many areas. Let’s take investing as an example.
The best approach for getting solid returns when you have no experience is to be humble and accept it: you’re playing a loser’s game. The simple solution is to buy an index fund every month for 30 or 40 years.
The result?
Average or slightly below-average returns… sustained over decades.
Which ends up bringing solid long-term gains with minimal risk.
Now, compare that with the amateur investor who thinks they can spot the next Google, Tesla, or Amazon. The one who believes they know where to put all their money and get rich in a year...
What will happen to them?
They’ll be competing against analysts with years of experience and experts with massive informational advantages. Trying to be brilliant in a game where you’re an amateur… is foolish. Being consistent, predictable, and not stupid… is a competitive advantage when you’re not the expert.
As Charlie Munger said:
“In investing, you don’t win by being smarter. You win by making fewer mistakes.”
Humility. That’s it.
Most people want to shine, but simply not messing up is already a way to stand out.
You need to know yourself well enough to understand the limits of your mental garden. You must realize you’re not at Wimbledon—and you don’t need to be to win your match. Only when you know what kind of game you’re in, in each area of life, will you know how to act wisely.
If you’re an amateur, just keep the ball in play until the others fail.
You don’t need to be brilliant.
Just don’t be stupid.
✍️ Your turn: In which areas of your life are you playing a Loser’s Game, and in which ones a Winner’s Game? Identifying these will give you clarity.
💭 Quote of the Day: "It is some comfort to us not to be entirely mistaken. I know it too well!" — J.R.R. Tolkien
See you next time! 👋
References 📚
Munger, C. T. (2023). Poor Charlie’s Almanack: The Essential Wit and Wisdom of Charles T. Munger.
Ramo, S. (1970). Extraordinary Tennis for the Ordinary Player: Winning Strategy for the Tennis Enthusiast who Plays for Fun.