Love this. Reading the news can also cause stress ... maybe. Depends on the stories, the media bias, and the reader's need to ingest only what they want to see.
Meanwhile, my daughter told me about a class she was teaching where a young woman didn't understand the difference between causal and casual relationships. Val said, that casual relationships can often lead to causal situations. 😁 It gave the student something to think about.
I totally agree with what you say, I've seen it in many people too. Sometimes we think that even the most casual things have to be due to a very solid reason or explanation. The reality is that many things are casual because we are unable to understand what is happening. The world is too complex and not everything can be explained 100%.
This is an important and difficult lesson to learn. The same thing happens in medicine, "I did Y and then felt better hence Y cured me" when in reality the person could have felt equally good had they done nothing. More over, Y could have even delayed them feeling better and yet curing powers are associated to Y.
In our line of inquiry this is indeed a very difficult question. Just this week we published an article examining the rate in violent crimes in three US cities. Several press articles have hailed and praised the programs implemented in Detroit, Baltimore, and San Antonio yet there has been a decline in violent crimes in places where there were no changes. When there are many factors and when you cannot create replicates it is much harder to make inferences. In fact, we may often by making the wrong ones and thus designing solutions that will not ameliorate the issue. Given that these alleged solutions are proposed and implemented but they were based on the wrong assumptions -- they may end up excarbating rather than ameliorating the problem.
What you say is very interesting. In fact, I have seen similar cases. In Spain there are programs for reducing crime that are not being effective at all. They fall into the same error that you mention.
It is very interesting. Most of the inferences we make about reality are approximations of what it can be. It is practically impossible to know exactly what is happening in such a complex world.
Right I have seen some discussion about there being little consequences for petty crime which some have argued encourages said crimes. There are so many aspects of criminal justice that seem to be in need of reform,
Love this. Reading the news can also cause stress ... maybe. Depends on the stories, the media bias, and the reader's need to ingest only what they want to see.
Meanwhile, my daughter told me about a class she was teaching where a young woman didn't understand the difference between causal and casual relationships. Val said, that casual relationships can often lead to causal situations. 😁 It gave the student something to think about.
Hi Sue!
I totally agree with what you say, I've seen it in many people too. Sometimes we think that even the most casual things have to be due to a very solid reason or explanation. The reality is that many things are casual because we are unable to understand what is happening. The world is too complex and not everything can be explained 100%.
This is an important and difficult lesson to learn. The same thing happens in medicine, "I did Y and then felt better hence Y cured me" when in reality the person could have felt equally good had they done nothing. More over, Y could have even delayed them feeling better and yet curing powers are associated to Y.
In our line of inquiry this is indeed a very difficult question. Just this week we published an article examining the rate in violent crimes in three US cities. Several press articles have hailed and praised the programs implemented in Detroit, Baltimore, and San Antonio yet there has been a decline in violent crimes in places where there were no changes. When there are many factors and when you cannot create replicates it is much harder to make inferences. In fact, we may often by making the wrong ones and thus designing solutions that will not ameliorate the issue. Given that these alleged solutions are proposed and implemented but they were based on the wrong assumptions -- they may end up excarbating rather than ameliorating the problem.
Hi!
What you say is very interesting. In fact, I have seen similar cases. In Spain there are programs for reducing crime that are not being effective at all. They fall into the same error that you mention.
It is very interesting. Most of the inferences we make about reality are approximations of what it can be. It is practically impossible to know exactly what is happening in such a complex world.
Great comment, thank you.
Right I have seen some discussion about there being little consequences for petty crime which some have argued encourages said crimes. There are so many aspects of criminal justice that seem to be in need of reform,
You're right. It is not my expertise, but I got that feeling.