Inversion: The Great Minds Thinking Technique

The power of thinking in reverse

🏷️ Categories: Mental models.

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When Reed Hastings founded Netflix in 1997, he didn’t ask, “How can we create a better video rental store?” Instead, he asked, “What do people hate the most about video rental stores?”

The answer was clear: late fees (Sorenson, 2013).

Instead of trying to improve the traditional model, Reed flipped the problem and completely eliminated late fees by introducing the subscription model.

This simple shift in thinking led to the total disruption of the movie rental industry and set Netflix on the path to becoming an entertainment giant. Instead of asking how to get customers to rent more movies, Reed asked what would make them stop going to a video store.

Approaching the question from the opposite angle set him apart from the competition and propelled his success.

This inversion didn’t just work for Netflix—it’s an ancient technique used by Stoic philosophers. Let’s explore how you can apply it to think strategically, avoid mistakes, and generate innovative ideas that set you apart.

What is the mental model of inversion?

The idea is simple: flip the questions.

Instead of asking yourself, “How do I achieve this?” ask, “How do I avoid failure?”

Its greatest proponent was Carl Jacobi, a German mathematician who popularized the phrase: “Invert, always invert” (Van Vleck, 1917). Carl Jacobi observed that many problems that seemed impossible became clearer when approached from the opposite direction.

Inverting the question reveals insights that conventional thinking overlooks.

Think backward and get it right

A great example is Abraham Wald and the airplanes of World War II.

At the time, engineers were trying to reinforce planes to reduce combat losses. Initially, they analyzed damage on returning aircraft and focused on strengthening the areas most hit by bullets. However, mathematician Abraham Wald suggested inverting the perspective.

Instead of thinking about the planes that returned, they needed to consider the ones that didn’t.

The least damaged areas on returning planes were actually the critical points—because planes that were hit in those areas didn’t survive (Wald, 1943). Thanks to inversion, they reinforced the right areas and reduced casualties.

Damaged parts (red dots) are areas where they can be damaged and still come back. Those that are hit elsewhere do not survive.

This is how the survivorship bias was discovered—a common thinking error.

Practical examples of inversion

1. Challen1ging beliefs

If you want to make the best decisions, question what you take for granted.

Instead of seeking information that confirms your beliefs, ask yourself: “What evidence could prove me wrong?” This will give you a complete perspective and help you avoid confirmation bias. Scientists, philosophers, and great entrepreneurs use inversion to make decisions.

One example I never forget is a quote from investor Charlie Munger:

"I never allow myself to have an opinion on a subject unless I know the arguments against my own position better than my opponents do." — Charlie Munger, Poor Charlie's Almanack

Think in reverse. Don’t seek confirmation—seek refutation.

2. Productivity

Many people worry about doing more in less time.

Instead of asking what techniques you can apply to do more, invert the question. Ask yourself what distracts you and how you waste time. Avoiding mistakes is more effective than improving what already works.

• For results, reducing distractions is easier than increasing efficiency.

• For finances, saving is easier than finding new income sources.

This idea was key to the rise of Japan’s television industry.

While the U.S. focused on producing more, the Japanese asked: “What is making us produce less?” They applied the Japanese concept of muda (無駄), and as a result, by 1974, Japanese TVs had five times fewer defects than American ones. By 1979, Japanese workers were assembling TVs three times faster than their competitors (Princeton University, 1990).

The biggest progress comes from avoiding setbacks.

3. Prevention

The Stoics understood that the best way to avoid problems is to anticipate them. Seneca recommended the technique of praemeditatio malorum (pre-studying misfortunes). Invert essential aspects of your life and think about what you would do if something went wrong.

• What would happen if you lost your job?

• What if you had a medical emergency?

Marcus Aurelius practiced this every morning in his journal, mentally preparing for any obstacle in the day ahead. By planning your response to potential problems in advance, the most critical aspects of your life will be secure, and nothing will catch you off guard.

Those who prepare for adversity are never surprised and act with calmness and determination.

Whatever problem you face, always consider the opposite perspective.

Take control—flip the situation around.

✍️ Your turn: In what areas will you use inversion? I frequently use it to save time and improve efficiency—just like the Japanese did with TVs.

💭 Quote of the day: “Think and deliberate before taking a step.” — Sun Tzu, The Art of War

See you next time! 👋

References 📚

1. Munger, C. T. (2023). Poor Charlie’s Almanack: The Essential Wit and Wisdom of Charles T. Munger. Stripe Press.

2. Séneca. Cartas a Lucilio.

3. Sorenson, O. (2013). Netflix business model. En The Anderson Anderson School At UCLA. URL

4. Van Vleck, E. (1917). Current tendencies of mathematical research. Bulletin Of The American Mathematical Society, 37(1), 45-53. URL

5. Wald, A. (1980) [1943]. A Reprint of 'A Method of Estimating Plane Vulnerability Based on Damage of Survivors' Center for Naval Analyses URL