3 Timeless Ideas to Solve Problems Before They Occur

Prevention is better than cure

🏷️ Categories: History, Decision making and biases, Mental models, Continuous improvement.

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In 1940, Europe was on the verge of collapse.

France, which until then had been a key player in the fight against Nazi expansion, was on the verge of surrender. In this scenario, Winston Churchill made one of the most difficult decisions of his career. His goal: to prevent the French fleet, one of the most powerful, from falling into Nazi hands. If Hitler gained control of those ships, he would dominate the seas.

Churchill did not hesitate.

He ordered the destruction of the allied French ships in the port of Mers-el-Kébir, in Algeria. A controversial decision at the time, but Churchill understood that it was an anticipation to avoid the greater evil: that the ships would fall into enemy hands.

What Churchill did was anticipate the disaster.

Solve present problems instead of looking for solutions to future catastrophes.

This historical event leaves us with a lesson: anticipation is a key strategic skill. If we are able to anticipate problems, we have an advantage, solving problems before they even exist.

Now, how can we apply this mentality in our daily lives?

Here are some ideas.

1. Negative visualization

Seneca knew this 2000 years ago. The philosopher advised his friend Lucilius to use the technique “praemeditatio malorum” (pre-studying the evils). A technique to anticipate problems and be prepared for when they happen (because they will happen).

Nothing is totally reliable.

For example: What would happen if a medical emergency arose or you had to repair your car or renovate your house? Do you have a cushion of savings for unforeseen events? How could you deal with these problems without everything falling apart?

Think about these scenarios in advance and you will have control of the situation.

This way you will not be paralyzed by any surprise and you will act calmly and decisively. Marcus Aurelius wrote about this in his diary, he did the practice early in the morning. Think about those crucial areas of your life on which the rest of things depend and make sure you have an answer or an idea of ​​what to do in case of problems.

One way to find that answer is through a precautionary reserve, that is, oversizing security to prevent even the worst event without a doubt.

It is about weaving a net so as not to fall into the void.

It is about turning the unpredictable into the predictable.

2. Learn from mistakes (even before making them)

What if you could live 2 lives?

In the first life you would make mistakes and learn from them, in the second you would already have the previous experience and life would be extremely simple. Wouldn't that be great?

You can make it happen.

You will save endless time and resources by exhaustively studying the mistakes of those who are one step ahead of you on the same path as you. For example, imagine that you are starting to write.

• Where is it better to start? Wattpad, Substack, Twitter, a blog, writing books...?

• What is it that prevents most people from becoming known? How did they become known?

• What do they do to write consistently day after day?

• Is it better to self-publish the book or talk to a publisher?

There are millions of questions out there that you can answer in advance. The work of finding solutions has already been done by someone else, take advantage of it to think of ways to anticipate those problems. And be careful, don't forget the survivor bias.

Don't wait to make a mistake to learn a lesson.

3. Be antifragile

Nassim Taleb's concept of "antifragility" is a powerful mental model.

There are certain systems that do not collapse with chaos, on the contrary, they are strengthened. We must be prepared for chaos because I have bad news: it is inevitable. What happens if you don't tidy your room in 1 month? What happens if you don't cut the weeds in the garden in 1 month?

Everything tends to chaos if you don't keep it under control, but you can take advantage of chaos.

1. Think one step further:

Imagine that you want to buy a car. The decision seems easy: look for the best model in quality/price according to your budget. But if you do the test and go one step further, you will discover that the price was just the tip of the iceberg.

The cheapest car could end up being the most expensive in the long term for a thousand reasons.

• How much does maintenance cost? And car insurance?

• Is it fuel efficient for the number of trips you will make?

• How expensive will it be to repair it if something breaks? Will it break down a lot because it's old?

• Will you be able to adapt it to changes in your lifestyle?

The real cost is much more than the price you pay when you buy it.

2. Benefit from chaos:

Think about how your decision or system will adapt to possible future chaos.

A very personal example where I applied this mindset was with my first car. I didn't look at the price, but at the versatility. I bought a small van.

• I don't carry a lot of stuff, but when I need to, I have room for everything.

• I don't usually need 5 seats, but if I go with a lot of people, we're comfortable.

• It has 5 seats, but if I go camping, I can convert it and everything fits.

• It's very spacious, but it's big and consumes like a car.

It's like a regular car, but it's foolproof.

It doesn't usually give its full potential, but when chaos arises, it saves me. Meanwhile, I've heard my friends sigh several times when they think about how to carry a lot of stuff or go to the mountains with their cars.

The decision is antifragile: the more complex the situation, the more useful the vehicle is.

Think about it in other areas of life, it happens in countless decisions and systems.

Work on proactivity, not just reactivity

We live in a culture that rewards reaction, "fixing what is broken," the solution.

This mentality is counterproductive. Instead of being good forecasters and building systems that anticipate crises, we focus on being good problem solvers, which leads us to live in a constant state of emergency.

Nobody acts until the problem knocks on the door and is inevitable.

At a social level, it is seen in institutions and corporations. There is a tendency to reward those who solve problems over those who foresee them, since foresight is silent and passive, while the solution is fast and spectacular. Not everything can be foreseen, but there is a lot we can do in that direction.

• I think of Japan and its architecture against earthquakes.

• I think of the Netherlands and its dike systems against floods.

• Think of yourself. Backups, emergency savings for unforeseen events...?

Positive qualities are opposites. The person who is brave enough to do everything ends up being reckless, but the one who is prudent enough to do everything ends up being a coward and doing nothing. Virtue lies in the middle ground. We tend to forget this and think only about solving problems, forgetting the other part: prevention.

To avoid major crises in the future, solve the small problems of tomorrow.

✍️ It's your turn: What do you do to plan your future? Do you use other techniques?

💭 Quote of the day: "To err is human; but to persist in error is diabolical." Seneca.

See you soon! 👋

References 📚

1. Marco Aurelio. (2020). Meditaciones.

2. Séneca. Cartas a Lucilio.

3. Taleb, N. N. (2012). Antifragile: Things that Gain from Disorder.