Illusion of control: Our mind needs security (even if it is a lie)
Regain real control
🏷️ Categories: Decision making and biases, Behavior.
In a small white room, with no distractions, a person sits in front of a machine. In front of them are two buttons, each with a light. One says “Yes.” The other, “No.”
They are given a task: make the “Yes” light turn on as many times as possible.
No further instructions are given.
With curiosity, the person presses the first button. Nothing. They try the second. The “Yes” light flashes! A small spark of satisfaction lights up inside them. “Maybe if I press faster…” they think. They press again. This time, the “No” light lights up. They frown. Adjust their strategy. Press the first button twice, then the second. They observe closely, searching for a pattern, a magic formula.
As time passes and they keep experimenting, something happens.
When the “Yes” light appears more often, the person feels they better understand how their button combinations affect the lights. On the other hand, if “Yes” barely appears, they feel they can’t crack the mechanism behind it. A while later, the person exits the room and is asked one question:
How much influence did you think you had over the number of “Yeses” you got?
Those who got many “Yeses” said they had found the pattern.
Those who got few “Yeses” said they hadn’t found the pattern.
There’s just one problem with all of this…
The lights were turning on randomly. There was no mechanism. No pattern. Nothing.
It was 1980, and psychologists Allan and Jenkins revealed something profound about the human mind: we prefer to believe we have control over what happens — even when that control is a complete illusion. Almost no one thought the lights were random.
This is called the illusion of control, and it’s more common than you think…
The Illusion of Control
Psychologist Ellen Langer coined the term in the 1970s to describe a cognitive bias: the human tendency to overestimate our influence over outcomes, especially in random situations.
One of the first places this was observed? Casinos.
Many players throw the dice harder when they need a high number (and more gently when they need a low one) (Henslin, 1967). The physical act doesn’t change the randomness, but the mind needs to believe it does to reduce the discomfort of knowing it’s all chance. And it’s not just casinos — some people believe their lucky clothes or objects can influence test results or similar events.
It always follows the same pattern…
When “skill cues” are introduced into a random situation — like being able to choose, compete, or become familiar with the task — people behave as if they can control the outcome. Just like in the “Yes” and “No” lights experiment.
Uncertainty causes discomfort, and we’d rather believe we have control.
More Experiments, Same Trap
1. The London Traders
Financial traders were analyzed while evaluating the value of a stock on a chart. In the experiment, they were told they could use a keyboard to interact with the value on screen, but were warned that the value sometimes changed randomly. Then they were asked to rate their own performance in evaluating the stock.
The result?
Those who rated their performance higher were more prone to the illusion of control — and they were also the ones who earned less in real-life trading scenarios.
Worse analytical ability
Poorer decision-making
Greater risk exposure
And in case you’re wondering… Yes, the stock value changed completely at random.
The illusion of control isn’t just a harmless bias; it can be costly.
2. Who’s the Better Driver?
Drivers were asked about their perceived risk in two situations: driving themselves vs. being a passenger (McKenna, 1993). Most said they felt much safer when they were the one driving.
And here’s the interesting part:
Those who felt safer driving believed accidents where they were in control (like rear-ending someone) were much less likely than accidents where they were victims (like being rear-ended). It’s the illusion of control — because these weren’t especially skilled drivers.
In fact, 93% of people in the U.S. believe they drive better than average (Svenson, 1981).
Why Do We Fall for the Illusion of Control?
The answer lies in our psychology.
Self-Regulation Theory explains that when humans face chaos or uncertainty, we need to believe we have some kind of influence. This belief calms us, gives us purpose, and drives us to act and try to change things.
A case from my own country: In Spain, during droughts, people sometimes take statues of saints out in processions to bring rain. I studied meteorology at university. They never taught us the connection between the atmosphere and a statue…
But the problem isn’t the act itself.
Holding a procession for rain, wearing lucky clothes, or tossing dice softly has no real consequences. The issue arises when this impulse leads us to make poor decisions and take risks — like the traders, or driving with overconfidence.
As Nassim Taleb says in Antifragile:
“Many times, acting just for the sake of acting gets us into trouble.” (Taleb, 2012)
What Is Under Your Control
Now that you know your sense of control is sometimes just an illusion, you might fall into cynicism and think: “So nothing I do matters?”
Nothing could be further from the truth.
As the Stoic philosophers taught over 2,000 years ago: we don’t control all events, but we do control our attitude toward them. How does this lesson apply? Nassim Taleb explains it clearly:
“Of course preparation, effort, and discipline matter. Of course you should work hard. But accepting the role of luck and uncertainty makes you stronger, not weaker.”
Knowing you don’t control everything keeps your mind open and helps you stay adaptable. The greater your illusion of control, the more control you think you have — and the more you underestimate data and underprepare for change.
Charlie Munger, one of the greatest investors in history, knew this well:
“Really good investment opportunities are rare and don’t last long, so you must be ready to act. Keep your mind prepared.”
True wisdom lies in working on what you can control: your actions. Your preparation. Your attitude toward circumstances. This applies to investing, and to countless other areas of life (including writing).
That way, when the opportunity comes (because yes, it will come), you’ll be ready to take it.
✍️ Your turn: In what areas of your life might you be overestimating your control? Are you focusing on the ones you actually can control?
💭 Quote of the Day: “Worrying, obsessing, and controlling are illusions. They’re tricks we play on ourselves.” — Melody Beattie, Codependent No More
See you next time! 👋
References 📚
Allan, L. G., & Jenkins, H. M. (1980). The judgment of contingency and the nature of the response alternatives. Canadian Journal Of Psychology/Revue Canadienne de Psychologie, 34(1), 1-11. URL
Henslin, J. M. (1967). Craps and Magic. American Journal Of Sociology, 73(3), 316-330. URL
McKenna, F. P. (1993). It won’t happen to me: Unrealistic optimism or illusion of control? British Journal Of Psychology, 84(1), 39-50. URL
Svenson, O. (1981). Are we all less risky and more skillful than our fellow drivers? Acta Psychologica, 47(2), 143-148. URL