Occam's Razor: Making Simple Decisions in a Complex World
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🏷️ Categories: Minimalism, Decision making and biases, Mental models.
In 1905, Albert Einstein revolutionized physics with his theory of special relativity.
Prior to his theory, scientists attempted to explain inconsistencies in the speed of light using complex theories that postulated the existence of an invisible “ether” that filled space. Einstein, with a simpler approach, developed a theory capable of explaining all cases without reference to the “ether” at all.
This caused most physicists to adopt his theory, since it showed that the concept of the “ether” was, in fact, unnecessary and only complicated things further.
This is a masterful example of Occam's Razor, a mental model to empower our decision making.
Let's see how to use this principle the way Einstein did.
What is Occam's Razor?
It was William of Ockham, a 14th century cleric and philosopher who popularized the concept, but the reality is that it is a millennia-old idea (Schaffer, 2014). The oldest record is from Aristotle, who said, “We may assume superiority, all things being equal, for the explanation that uses the fewest postulates or hypotheses.”
Don't complicate things unnecessarily.
Despite popular belief, it does not mean that the simplest solution is the correct one, but it is a practical starting point to avoid unnecessary complications. In other words, when theorizing about what we do not understand, we should start with the simplest. In fact, it will be a matter of time before the theories become more complicated on their own as we study the subject more and more.
Darwin's natural selection explains change in species in a simple way, requiring only genetic variability and th1e passage of time.
Newton explained the attraction between masses based only on their weight and distance, without extra assumptions. Other theories needed more concepts.
This happens at all levels of life, not just in science.
If you care about your finances. Instead of delving into difficult financial calculations, start with the 50/30/20 rule (needs, wants and savings) as a simple and practical starting point. You can refine it later, if you need to.
If your house is a mess, instead of buying more shelves and boxes, start by getting rid of items you no longer need. You don't need to complicate it with even more stuff, the solution is to eliminate items, not add more.
If you want to be more productive, before thinking that you need to learn how to use a difficult app with lots of tools, start by improving your concentration and use a simple to-do list. With that alone, the change will be drastic.
When faced with comparable options, the essential part comes first.
How to use Occam's Razor without cutting yourself
Despite its advantages, nothing is foolproof. It is crucial to know when it is worth using this mental model and when it is not. These are cases to avoid.
Irreducible problem: There are issues that cannot be reduced any further no matter how hard you try, such as climate change, which needs multidisciplinary explanations. Insisting on simple explanations leads to serious mistakes and bad decisions.
Improbable but crucial: Do not quickly discard the complex option if the cost of the error is too high. For example, if a physician makes a diagnosis by counting only common symptoms, he may miss rare but critical diseases.
Contrary evidence: Never follow the simplest option if the empirical evidence and data point to the contrary. It is a useful mental model for initial conclusions, like Einstein's theory, before obtaining decisive information.
The Razor serves to cut excess and seek clarity, not to simplify to the extreme.
The simplest solution may be a good starting point, but it is not an absolute truth. The Razor does not replace critical thinking, nor does it replace the work of investigating which option is correct. As Einstein did when he eliminated the concept of the “ether” and as we can in our day to day life, decisions and projects.
Cut what is left over and sharpen your thinking.
✍️ Your turn: How could you apply Occam's Razor in your life? Is there a topic where you always end up overcomplicating yourself?
💭 Quote of the day: “We consider it a good principle to explain phenomena by the simplest possible hypothesis.” Claudius Ptolemy
See you next time, take care! 👋
References 📚
Aristotle. Posterior Analytics.
Schaffer, J. (2014). What Not to Multiply Without Necessity. Australasian Journal Of Philosophy, 93(4), 644-664. URL